Markets, capital, and the discipline of patient investing.
RFC Capital Research publishes the independent analysis of Ruslan Averin — an investor focused on public markets, sovereign and corporate fixed income, cross-border real estate, and capital allocation across emerging and frontier markets.
No institutional mandate, no house view to defend — a working record of how one investor thinks about risk, value, and the markets most analysts avoid.
€210 Billion Nobody Can Spend: The Legal Deadlock Over Frozen Russian Assets
Around €210bn of Russian sovereign assets sit immobilised in Europe, mostly in Belgium. The reparations loan built on them stalled over liability. What the deadlock is made of and what would resolve it.
AnalysisThe IMF Just Released Ukraine's Second Tranche — And Attached a Warning
The IMF completed the first review of Ukraine's $8.1bn EFF arrangement on July 20, releasing about $690m and cautioning against any retreat from reforms. What the conditionality actually requires.
AnalysisUkraine's 2027 Budget: Fiscal Pressure Rises Without a Tax Increase
Ukraine's fiscal policy tightens into 2027 even without headline tax increases — through excise trajectories, subsidy commitments and debt service. How the squeeze arrives anyway.
AnalysisDebt at 122% of GDP: When the Ratio Tells You Less Than You Think
Ukraine's public debt sits near 122% of GDP. Why the headline ratio is a poor guide to sustainability when most of the stock is concessional and the denominator is a wartime economy.
AnalysisUkraine's $52 Billion Financing Gap: Who Actually Closes It
Ukraine faces a projected $52bn financing gap for 2026, expected to be covered by EU facilities, the G7 ERA mechanism, bilateral aid and IMF disbursements. How the structure works and where it is fragile.
Analysis14 Million Tonnes of Wheat, 25 of Corn — Ukraine's Grain Trade Still Works
Ukraine is set to export roughly 14m tonnes of wheat, 25m tonnes of corn and 1.52m tonnes of barley in MY 2025/26 — with around 20% of agricultural land occupied.