Independent Investment Analysis

Markets, capital, and the discipline of patient investing.

RFC Capital Research publishes the independent analysis of Ruslan Averin — an investor focused on public markets, sovereign and corporate fixed income, cross-border real estate, and capital allocation across emerging and frontier markets.

No institutional mandate, no house view to defend — a working record of how one investor thinks about risk, value, and the markets most analysts avoid.

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Latest

Markets

Two Notes, 90.6% of the Cash: Why the NBU Sees No Case for a UAH 5,000 Banknote

Recent Analysis

Markets

ASML's Q3 2026 Print: Guidance Replaces Bookings as the Only Real Signal

ASML Q3 2026 preview: €11–12 billion sales guided, no bookings figure, China down to 14% of system sales and the 2027 EUV order book in focus.

Markets

Ukraine's Pension Map Shifts: UAH 7,287.81 Average, 44.35% Still Below UAH 5,000

Average pension in Ukraine reached UAH 7,287.81 in October 2026, up 13.2%, but 44.35% of pensioners get under UAH 5,000. 2027 budget and new benefit law explained.

Markets

Bank of America Q3 2026: The Quarter Management Already Marked Down

Bank of America Q3 2026 preview: EPS $1.10 consensus, revenue $30.6 billion, investment banking fees $1.6–1.8 billion, NII guidance at the upper end of 6–8%.

Markets

BlackRock Q3 2026 Preview: $14.31 EPS Hinges on Performance Fees, Not Just Flows

BlackRock Q3 2026 earnings preview: $14.31 EPS consensus, $7.52 billion revenue, organic fee growth, iShares flows, private markets and Aladdin.

Markets

Hryvnia at 45: What $1.25 Billion a Week of NBU Sales Really Buys Ukraine

Dollar rate 44.9567 on 13 October, record 45.0564, NBU sales $1,248.8 million a week, reserves $47.1 billion, forecasts and deposit vs OVDP breakeven.

Markets

Ukraine's Reservation Draft: the Quota Base Bites Harder Than the 85% Cap

Employee reservation rules 2026: caps fall to 85% and 60%, the quota base drops other deferrals, and the UAH 25,941 wage threshold lifts payroll costs.

Ukraine Fuel Prices: Diesel at UAH 98.68 Overtakes A-95 as Costs Jump 76% in a Year Seoul's Two-Stock Market: KOSPI at 6,035 After a 5.46% Drop, Chips at Half of Exports Pounds in a Drawer: What the Bank of England's Animal Banknotes Change for Cash Holders OFZ Auctions Under Strain: Moscow Needs 2.45 Trillion Rubles in One Quarter Bali or Phuket in 2026: How a 10% Advertised Yield Ends Up as 3% in Cash Gemini's Breakout at Three Real Firms: Alphabet Held Firm, Security Budgets Get the Bill The Yen Fell Anyway: BoJ at 1.25% and the Spread That Still Sets the Price Lennar's Q3 2026: Volume Held, Orders Broke, and Deliveries Guidance Cut Again Ukraine's 2027 Budget Gap of $32.6 Billion Dwarfs Finland's 34th Package Yanbu's Five-to-Seven-Day Cushion: Brent Above $105 With No Petroline Restart Date Ukraine 2026: What Tax an Apartment Costs at Every Stage of Ownership Investment-Grade Credit at 5.53%: The Corporate Part Is Worth Just 0.81%Kyiv 2026: Where $70,000 Actually Earns More — Apartments, Pre-Sale, Retail or Bonds Ukraine 2026: Why Selling an Apartment Held Under 3 Years Costs 10% of the Whole Price Nine Months of Standing Still: How Treasuries Tightened Without the Fed RCI Hospitality Buys Back Its Own Shares Faster Than It Grows DaVita Beat Estimates, Reaffirmed Guidance, and Fell 18%UWM Holdings Fell 44.7% — Leverage to Mortgage Volume Cuts Both Ways Debt at 122% of GDP: When the Ratio Tells You Less Than You Think Ukraine's IT Sector Exports $6.45 Billion and Ranks Fifth Worldwide Pegasystems Fell 14% — When a $0.35 Print Meets a $0.43 Expectation Diamondback — The Lowest-Cost Permian Barrel for a Hormuz Oil Spike Badger Meter — A 33-Year Aristocrat Turning Into a Water-Software Play Stocks Down, Oil Up — The Market's Two-Front Week Ukraine's Central Bank Held at 15% — Why the Hold Matters More Than a Cut Would Have — The Other Side of the Trade Nike (NKE) Slid as RBC Cut It to Sector Perform — The Turnaround Is Stalling Employers Are Quietly Dropping GLP-1 Coverage for 2027 — The $149 Pill Changed the Math Bret Taylor's Sierra Just Walked Into the Utility Business — 70 Million Accounts at Stake TD Bank Returned 73% in a Year — Now the Math Says It's 10% Overvalued Due Diligence on Ukrainian Property Developers: A Framework for Foreign Investors