Independent Investment Analysis

Markets, capital, and the discipline of patient investing.

RFC Capital Research publishes the independent analysis of Ruslan Averin — an investor focused on public markets, sovereign and corporate fixed income, cross-border real estate, and capital allocation across emerging and frontier markets.

No institutional mandate, no house view to defend — a working record of how one investor thinks about risk, value, and the markets most analysts avoid.

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Markets

Pounds in a Drawer: What the Bank of England's Animal Banknotes Change for Cash Holders

Recent Analysis

Markets

Citigroup Q3 2026 Preview: $2.65 EPS, a 13% RoTCE Run-Rate and the Banamex Clock

Citigroup Q3 2026 earnings preview: consensus EPS $2.65, revenue $23.7 billion, Fraser's 11% RoTCE target, Services growth, Banamex exit and the $30 billion buyback.

Markets

GameStop at $26.56: Half Portfolio, Half Retailer, One October Deadline

GameStop stock rose 48.6% in six weeks to $26.56. Record Q2 profit, a 9.8% eBay stake, $32 warrants expiring 30 October and a sum-of-parts check.

Markets

J&J Q3 2026 Preview: A $1bn Charge, Talc Timetable and the DePuy Synthes Question

Johnson & Johnson Q3 2026 earnings preview: Firefly charge distorts EPS, Stelara erosion, $5.5 billion talc deal and the DePuy Synthes exit.

Markets

JPMorgan Q3 2026: Why the $105.5B NII Line Matters More Than the $5.93 EPS Bar

JPMorgan Q3 2026 earnings preview: consensus EPS $5.93, revenue $51.2B, NII guidance $105.5B, IB fees $3.0-3.1B and Dimon's economic read on 13 October.

Markets

OFZ Auctions Under Strain: Moscow Needs 2.45 Trillion Rubles in One Quarter

OFZ yields near 17%, a 7.345 trillion ruble deficit and failed auctions: how Russia funds its 2026 budget and who is actually buying the debt.

Markets

UnitedHealth Q3 2026 Preview: Why the Medical Care Ratio Outranks the $4.12 EPS Line

UnitedHealth Q3 2026 earnings preview: $4.12 EPS consensus, $111.3 billion revenue, 88.1% medical care ratio guidance and the 2027 Medicare Advantage question.

September Existing Home Sales: a 3.96 Million Print Lands After Rates Hit 7.40%Pontes Goes Live: The ECB Puts Central-Bank Money on Tokenized Rails Gemini's Breakout at Three Real Firms: Alphabet Held Firm, Security Budgets Get the Bill Amazon Buys Backup Power: Generac's $2.4 Billion Order and a 2.87% Warrant Warsh's First Hike: FOMC Moves to 3.75–4.00% as the Dots Jump to 4.1%Warsh's First Real Test: Why the 10-Year, Not the Funds Rate, Decides 16 September The AI Pacing Debate Met a 5% Treasury: Why Chips Fell and Meta Rose Yanbu's Five-to-Seven-Day Cushion: Brent Above $105 With No Petroline Restart Date Compute Sellers Fell, Compute Buyers Rose: What the AI Pacing Selloff Really Priced Kyiv Buy-to-Let 2026: Why Entry Price Beats the District in Every Yield Model The 10-Year Hit 5% Before the Fed Moved: Inside the 16 September 2026 Decision Kyiv Pit-Stage Apartments in 2026: Why +30% on the Slide Becomes 18.8% in Hand Ukraine 2026: Why Selling an Apartment Held Under 3 Years Costs 10% of the Whole Price Ukraine's 2027 Service Bar: UAH 22,828 Buys a Year, and Why That Is the Easy Part Playboy Sold Half Its China Business and the Stock Costs $1.22 A $16 Million Revenue Miss Cost AppLovin $40 Billion Insulet Cut Its Full-Year Outlook and Lost 17%UWM Holdings Fell 44.7% — Leverage to Mortgage Volume Cuts Both Ways Ukraine's 2027 Budget: Fiscal Pressure Rises Without a Tax Increase Ukraine's Recovery Is Forecast for 2027-28 — On Four Assumptions Frontline (FRO) and the Tanker Trade Unwinding After the US-Iran Pause Salesforce and the SaaSpocalypse — When the Category King Gets Cut in Half Diamondback — The Lowest-Cost Permian Barrel for a Hormuz Oil Spike Northrop Grumman — Cheap Missile Defense After the War Premium Faded Gorman-Rupp — A 53-Year Dividend King in Pumps, Now Priced for It SpaceX Fell Below Its IPO Price — The Hype Trade Meets Gravity Ruslan Averin — Independent Investor and Market Analyst Nike (NKE) Slid as RBC Cut It to Sector Perform — The Turnaround Is Stalling Wall Street Is Quietly Rewriting Fed Supervision — And Wants It Locked In Writing Every Oil Shock Since 1970 Ended the Same Way for Stocks — Paulsen's Warning for 2026